Continue reading »]]> Pengaruh Rangkaian Krisis Eropa Terhadap Indonesia Dilihat Dari Credit Default Swap (CDS)

Krisis utang di kawasan Uni Eropa terus bergejolak dan mengakibatkan ketidakpastian di pasar global. Berbagai solusi yang diajukan masih banyak menimbulkan pertanyaan, apakah masalah akan dapat diselesaikan dengan baik ataukah memunculkan krisis yang lebih besar lagi.

Lima negara Eropa yang disingkat PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) saat ini menjadi sorotan utama karena merupakan negara dengan rasio hutang tertinggi dan dikhawatirkan dapat menciptakan efek domino negatif terhadap keseimbangan ekonomi global jika masalah tidak cepat diatasi.

Dalam perkembangan ini, kami mencoba menganalisa hubungan antara krisis Zona Eropa saat ini dengan pasar modal Indonesia terkait dengan pergerakan CDS Surat Utang Pemerintah Negara bersangkutan. Seperti yang kita ketahui, CDS adalah Credit Default Swap, Sebuah instrumen proteksi terhadap surat utang yang dibeli. Pihak pembeli surat utang akan membeli CDS untuk memproteksi surat utang yang dibelinya dari risiko gagal bayar / default. Semakin tinggi nilai CDS menunjukkan semakin tinggi permintaan atas CDS bersangkutan. Hal ini menunjukkan semakin banyak pihak yang berekspektasi surat utang tersebut memiliki potensi lebih besar untuk mengalami gagal bayar.

Akankah pasar modal Indonesia terseret, ataukah hanya mengalami koreksi sesaat setelah naik cukup tajam? Berikut kami sajikan grafik perbandingan pergerakan CDS dari 5 negara bermasalah di Eropa (PIIGS) termasuk CDS Indonesia (Desember 2007 – 12 Juli 2011):

CDS Portugal

CDS Italia

CDS Irlandia

CDS Yunani

CDS Spanyol

CDS Indonesia

Grafik CDS dari Negara PIIGS menunjukan bahwa nilai CDS kelima negara tersebut terus naik lebih tinggi melebihi nilai ketika terjadi krisis global tahun 2008. Dapat disimpulkan surat utang pemerintah dari kelima negara ini dipandang memiliki risiko gagal bayar yang semakin meningkat.

Koreksi yang dialami pasar Eropa beberapa hari terakhir ini turut menyeret bursa global termasuk IHSG. Akankah Indonesia terseret lebih dalam? Perhatikan CDS Indonesia pada grafik di atas, setelah sempat menyentuh level 1256.7 ketika terjadi krisis global tahun 2008, saat ini CDS Indonesia berada di level rendah di 140.53 dan cenderung stabil. Hal ini berbanding terbalik dari CDS PIIGS yang terus menanjak naik. Jika masalah PIIGS ini dikhawatirkan akan berdampak negatif, maka CDS Indonesia sudah selayaknya bergerak naik seperti ketika terjadi krisis global 2008.

Kemampuan CDS Indonesia bertahan di level rendah menunjukkan investor tidak melihat adanya peningkatan risiko pada Surat Utang Pemerintah Indonesia serta perekonomian dalam cakupan yang lebih luas. Jika tingkat kepercayaan investor (ditunjukkan oleh CDS) tetap terjaga baik, maka koreksi yang terjadi beberapa hari terakhir ini merupakan koreksi sehat setelah IHSG naik cukup tinggi dan mencatatkan rekor tertingginya di level 4005.69

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• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%

Continue reading »]]> Melihat kondisi bursa global yang selalu dilanda berita negatif, mari coba kita lihat satu per satu pergerakan beberapa bursa utama dunia per tanggal 24 Juni 2011 dari sisi Teknikal (ketika berita dan sentimen sudah tidak mampu di’cerna’ dengan pasti, mari kembali menganalisa pergerakan harga karena seperti kata pepatah: “Harga Ga Bisa Bohong”. Setuju?

DOW JONES

Melihat pergerakan Dow Jones di atas, tampak Dow berada tidak jauh dari support psikologis MA200nya. Jika support minor 11862 ditembus, maka Dow hampir pasti akan menembus MA200 sehingga berpeluang untuk melanjutkan penurunan dengan target penurunan ke 11236 dan minor targetnya di 11607. Potensi terburuk bagi Dow adalah level 10725 yang peluangnya untuk saat ini masih kecil. Dow masih dalam persimpangan jalan, jika mampu kembali menguat ke atas MA100 dan MA50 di area 12370, maka Dow berpeluang untuk kembali melanjutkan tren naiknnya. MACD yang baru saja Golden Cross menunjukkan ada potensi bagi Dow untuk menguat, selama supportnya tidak tertembus.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan Dow ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. Dow sempat melemah ke bawah MA200. Diperkirakan Dow akan mengalami hal serupa jika tidak mampu menahan penurunan saat ini.

FTSE

FTSE telah mendahului Dow Jones turun ke bawah MA200-nya. Ini menunjukkan FTSE berada dalam fase downtrend untuk saat ini. jika FTSE terus melemah, maka berpelaung besar membentuk pola Double Top dengan target harga ke 5269 dan minor target di 5467. MACD yang terus menurun menunjukkan FTSE bergerak negatif.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan FTSE ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. FTSE sempat melemah ke bawah MA200. Jika efek krisis Eropa jilid 2 ini tidak lebih buruk dibandingkan tahun lalu, maka diperkirakan FTSE akan mengalami hal serupa seperti tahun lalu.

DAX

DAX merupakan bursa di kawasan Eropa yang memiliki ketahanan paling kuat dimana sejak krisis Eropa Jilid 1 awal Mei tahun lalu, DAX selalu mampu bertahan di atas support psikologis MA200 dan saat ini, ketika bursa Inggris dan Perancis telah memasuki fase downtrend, DAX mampu bertahan dan cenderung konsolidasi semata. Support kuat DAX berada di level 6991 yang persis berhimpitan dengan MA200. Jika level ini ditembus maka DAX mengkonfirmasi pembentukan pola Head & Shoulder dimana target penurunan pola ini adalah 6617 dengan minor target di 6852. Tetapi melihat posisi MACD yang berhasil Golden Cross, tampaknya peluang untuk turun masih kecil. Saat ini DAX bergerak konsolidasi dengan range 6991 – 7319.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan DAX ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. DAX mampu bertahan di atas MA200 dan melanjutkan tren naiknnya jauh lebihg tinggi daripada bursa Eropa lainnya. Jika efek krisis Eropa jilid 2 ini ekuivalen dengan tahun lalu, maka diperkirakan DAX akan mengalami hal serupa.

CAC

CAC identik dengan bursa utama Eropa (selain DAX) yang telah memasuki fase downtrend setelah turun di bawah MA200. Saat ini tertahan di support trend line-nya. Jika CAC tidak mampu bertahan di atas trend line, maka akan melanjutkan penurunan ke 3686 yang merupakan support dari pola Double Top yang berpeluang membawa CAC kembali turun ke target 3405 dengan minor target 3573. MACD yang terus menurun menunjukkan CAC bergerak negatif.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan CAC ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. CAC melemah ke bawah MA200 dan bergerak sangat fluktuatif. CAC juga berkinerja paling inferior dimana kenaikan pasca krisis tidak setinggi FTSE apalagi DAX. Jika efek krisis Eropa jilid 2 ini ekuivalen dengan tahun lalu, maka diperkirakan CAC akan mengalami hal serupa.

HANG SENG

HSI telah turun jauh dari MA200-nya dan hampir mencapai target awal penurunan di 21371 sehingga terdapat peluang untuk terjadi Technical Rebound. Jika HSI tidak mampu kembali & bertahan di atas  support kuat 22123 yang telah ditembus, maka HSI cenderung akan kembali melemah melanjutkan penurunan ke target utamanya di 20326. MACD yang mulai bergerak naik (walau belum Golden Cross) menunjukkan adanya peluang untuk rebound. Hanya saja Posisi MA50 dan MA100 yang telah Dead Cross terhadap MA200 menunjukkan HSI hanya akan mengalami rebound sesaat.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan HSI ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. HSI melemah cukup tajam & cepat ke bawah MA200. HSI berpeluang mengalami hal yang sama sebagai efek dari Krisis Eropa tahap 2 ini.

NIKKEI

Pergerakan NIKKEI sedikit berbeda dengan Bursa utama global lainnya dimana Bursa Jepang ini telah turun tajam 3 bulan lebih awal (Maret 2011) sebagai akibat krisis yang terjadi di dalam negerinya sendiri (bencana alam). Ketika bulan Juni mayoritas bursa utama Dunia terkoreksi cukup tajam dan memasuki fase Downtrend, Nikkei bergerak sebaliknya dengan menembus resisten dari minor downtrend-nya diiringi MACD yang Golden Cross. Kondisi ini menunjukkan adanya peluang bagi Nikkei untuk bergerak kontrarian, terutama jika mampu menembus resistennya di 10017 yang berarti kembali ke atas MA200 dan  berpotensi menguat menuju targetnya di 11128 dengan minor target 10440. Tetapi jika melemah ke bawah support 9318. maka Nikkei cenderung akan kembali melemah.

KESIMPULAN:

Melihat pergerakan beberapa bursa utama dunia seperti Dow Jones, FTSE, DAX, CAC, Hang Seng, dan Nikkei, secara garis besar Bursa Eropa dan Asia telah memasuki fase downtrend sedangkan bursa Amerika berada di persimpangan jalan. Merujuk pada kondisi yang terjadi setahun lalu tepatnya di awal Mei 2010, krisis Eropa mengakibatkan koreksi global yang terjadi sekitar 4 bulan lamanya. Mengasumsikan kondisi yang terjadi di Eropa saat ini memiliki tingkat risiko yang sama seperti tahun lalu, maka diperkirakan apa yang terjadi saat ini akan identik dengan apa yang terjadi setahun yang lalu. Bursa global kami perkirakan akan bergerak fluktuatif mencari kepastian arah.

BAGAIMANA PROSPEK IHSG?

Saat ini IHSG berada di posisi yang jauh lebih baik diantara Bursa Global lainnya. Ketika semua bursa utama dunia telah turun tajam dan memasuki fase downtrend setelah menembus support MA200, IHSG hanya sempat turun menembus MA50 dan untuk sementara ini berhasil kembali diatasnya. Penguatan IHSG yang diiringi Golden Cross pada MACD membuka ‘peluang’ bagi IHSG untuk melanjutkan tren naiknya, dengan konfirmasi utama yakni jika mampu break level tertinggi di 3872. Baca ulasan IHSG terbaru: ‘IHSG Berpeluang Mencatatkan New All Time High‘.

Perhatikan lingkaran Biru yang menunjukkan pergerakan IHSG ketika Krisis Eropa Tahap 1 muncul awal Mei 2010. IHSG melemah cukup tajam dan sempat menembus MA200 sesaat. Efek krisis yang terjadi di Indonesia hanya berlangsung 2 bulan (rata – rata bursa utama dunia 4 bulan) dan kembali menguat kerika MACD berhasil Golden Cross.

Support IHSG saat ini berada di level 3704, jika ternyata IHSG berbalik arah dan terkoreksi ke bawah level ini, maka IHSG berpeluang untuk turun ke MA200-nya di level 3600 dan menjadi kesempatan sangat baik untuk akumulasi saham – saham unggulan.

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• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%
• January 21, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi GaleriSahamPREMIUM – Full Year 2011: +20.13%

Continue reading »]]> Berikut kami sampaikan rangkuman pendapat beberapa ahli mengenai dampak yang akan (mungkin) terjadi jika Yunani default. Artikel ini kami ambil dari www.cnbc.com. Semoga dapat membuka gambaran bagi kita semua mengenai kekisruhan & Kekhawatiran yang terjadi saat ini. Mohon maaf hanya dalam versi Bahasa Inggris saja. Semoga Bermanfaat…

What Happens If Greece Defaults?

If Greece defaults on its sovereign debt, the effects will be global.

Everyone from Japanese savers to U.S. retirees is likely to feel the effects. Let’s run through the dominos that could fall after a Greek default.

By John Carney
Posted 16 June 2011

Greek Banks Get Nationalized

The banks of Greece are heavily exposed to the sovereign debt of their country. A default would require many of them to seek new capital to make up for the losses, and could trigger a run on banks by Greek depositors.

It’s very likely that the Greek government would be forced to declare a “bank holiday” to prevent a run. Eventually, the most exposed Greek banks would likely have to be nationalized.

Europe’s Banks Rocked

Europe’s banks are big holders of Greek debt. They have something like $53 billion outstanding. France, Germany and the U.K. are the most exposed.

“If bondholders were required to take a 40 percent ‘haircut’—a figure thrown up by many analysts—this would translate to losses in the order of €15.6 billion,” or $22 billion, according to one report.

Credit Default Swap Guessing Game

It’s unknown what the exposure of various financial institutions to a Greek default through credit default swaps might be. But someone has been selling lots of protection on Greek debt over the last few years, and a default would trigger a “credit event” payout on these insurance contracts.

A Global Credit Crunch

Doubts about the stability of financial institutions with direct and indirect exposure to Greece are likely to spread. Banks may hesitate to extend credit to each other out of fear about exposures. Many will require counter-parties to hand over additional collateral, forcing assets sales. In a repeat of the aftermath of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, global credit markets may seize up. Get ready to hear lots of talk about LIBOR spreads again.

U.S. Money-Market Funds Challenged

Analysts say that U.S. money-market funds have more exposure to the short-term debt of European banks than many investors realize. If European banks cannot roll over their commercial paper, some of these money-market funds may find they have capital shortfalls.

Ireland And Portugal Tempted to “Just Walk Away”

The Irish and the Portuguese are facing years of slow economic growth as their governments attempts to bring down debt levels and stabilize their banking systems. A default by Greece—especially if brought about by a popular uprising in the streets of Athens—could encourage these countries to default. If Greece can force creditors to take a haircut, why should Ireland and Portugal pay in full?

The European Central Bank in Crisis

The European Central Bank is massively exposed not only to Greek sovereign debt but to the debt of Irish banks. If Greece and Ireland’s banks do not make good on their debts, the ECB could be rendered insolvent, according to some analysts. Of course, the ECB is a central bank—which means it can always inflate its way back into solvency.

A Political Crisis in Germany

The turmoil across Europe may shake the government in Germany. The German people strongly oppose bailouts of what they view as less responsible countries. Any moves by the German government to alleviate the crisis caused by Greece could be met with a political revolt in the already shaky government of Angela Merkel.

U.S. Consumers Hit the Mattresses

Consumer confidence is already at a near nadir . A global credit crisis would likely convince U.S. consumers to reduce spending and increase savings. This could drag the already slowing American economy nearer to a recession.

Politicians Say ‘Don’t Panic’

One thing is certain: Political leaders around the globe will attempt to reassure their constituents and prevent financial panics. The appearance of politicians paraphrasing Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” line is unlikely to make any difference whatsoever.

Protectionism Arises

Rob Subbaraman, an economist at Nomura, has warned that if Germany and France are burdened with the debts of southern Europe, “it is conceivable that to support these economies, a new form of protectionism takes house, whereby countries such as France and Germany buy more goods from them at the expense of Asian exports.”

China’s Hard Landing

If U.S. consumers retreat and Europe goes protectionist, the weaknesses in the Chinese economy may become more evident. A slowdown in demand for goods from China could force the government to abandon its fight against inflation in order to keep the economy growing.

The alternative could be a “hard landing” scenario for China, in which years of over-investment in housing and infrastructure are revealed to be costly mistakes.

The U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate Ends

Following the chaos likely to result from a default by Greece, it’s unlikely that U.S. politicians will be willing to tempt fate by pushing for political gains in connection with the debt ceiling of the U.S. government. Politicians will quickly fall in line and support raising the debt ceiling.

The Sun Also Rises

This parade of horribles does not portend the end of the world. The sun will rise the day in the event Greece defaults. And it will rise the next day, and the next. People will still fall in love, get married, have children, make friends, and find innovative ways to cope with a world that seems a little less safe than it did a few months ago.

Eventually, someone, somewhere, will make a fortune by correctly calling the inevitable economic recovery.

Silahkan Baca Artikel Terkait

• July 12, 2011 -- Pengaruh Rangkaian Krisis Eropa Terhadap Indonesia
• December 16, 2010 -- Download: Economic Outlook 2011 By Schroders
• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%

Continue reading »]]> Jepang seperti yang telah kita ketahui pernah dilanda 2 gempa besar yakni gempa yang diikuti tsunami di Tohuku Maret 2011 dan gempa kobe tahun 1995. Walaupun memakan korban jiwa yang lebih besar dibandingkan gempa Kobe, tetapi secara ekonomi tidak berdampak separah gempa Kobe. Bagaimana ini bisa terjadi? Dahulu, gempa Kobe 1995 mempengaruhi wilayah yang menggerakkan perekonomian sebesar 14.4% dari PDB jepang. Sedangkan gempa Tohuku mempengaruhi wilayah yang mencakup sekitar 6% (umumnya adalah sektor pertanian) dari PDB Jepang.

Setelah bencana, bagaimana pemulihannya? Berkaca pada gempa Kobe, di kala itu wilayah yang terpuruk mengalami pemulihan ekonomi yang sangat pesat selama 2 tahun akibat program restrukturisasi. Demikian pula hal yang sama diperkirakan akan terjadi dalam proses pemulihan akibat bencana gempa Tohuku. Perekonomian Jepang diperkirakan akan mengalami penurunan yang cukup tajam tetapi dengan program rekonstruksi maka perekonomian akan kembali naik dengan pesat pula. Proyeksi ini diperkirakan akan dapat berjalan apabila permasalahan radiasi nuklir Fukushima dapat teratasi dengan segera. Jika tidak, maka akan terjadi keterlambatandalam proses pemulihan.

Bagaimana nasib Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Nuklir (PLTN)? Saat ini PLTN memasok sepertiga kebutuhan listrik jepang. Tampaknya Jepang akan mulai kembali menata ulang struktur pembangkit energinya dengan melakukan diversivikasi ke energi tradisional seperti minyak bumi, batu bara, dan gas.

Masalah Infrastruktur? Pemulihan pasca gempa menurut kami akan diawali oleh rekonstruksi infrastruktur, seperti sarana transportasi, jalan, kereta, serta listrik, energi, dan sebagainya. Oleh karena itu, kami memprediksi akan terjadi pembangunan fisik secara masif dan cepat. Hal ini mengingatkan kami kembali kepada pembangunan di China serta Dubai di kala sebelum krisis global. Mengapa Infrastruktur yang utama? karena ketersediaan infrastruktuk akan memperlancar restrukturisasi.

Apa saja yang dibutuhkan dalam restrukturisasi dan benefitnya bagi Indonesia? Member GaleriSahamPREMIUM

Ulasan ini dibuat dengan menggunakan beberapa referensi dari media serta opini dan analisa tim GaleriSaham.com

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• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%
• January 21, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi GaleriSahamPREMIUM – Full Year 2011: +20.13%
• December 22, 2011 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi November 2011: Outperform! Get Ready For Window Dressing

Continue reading »]]> Dear All,

Bagi teman – teman yang ingin mendapatkan bahan presentasi Market Outlook 2011 yang sempat diadakan di BEJ 4 Desember 2010 dapat mendownload di kolom DOWNLOAD CENTER (BoxNet) di sebelah kanan bawah GaleriSaham.com

…Krisis Amerika Dan Eropa diperkirakan terus berlanjut hingga 2011 dan pertumbuhan ekonomi paling besar berada di kawasan negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia di dalamnya. Ekonomi Indonesia masih menjanjikan pertumbuhan yang tinggi dimana pada tahun 2011 pertumbuhan GDP akan lebih tinggi daripada 2010 walaupun dibayangi inflasi yang meningkat…

Silahkan mendownload materi Economic Outlook 2011 pada kolom DOWNLOAD CENTER untuk informasi lebih lengkap.

Terima kasih, semoga bermanfaat.

Silahkan Baca Artikel Terkait

• July 12, 2011 -- Pengaruh Rangkaian Krisis Eropa Terhadap Indonesia
• June 20, 2011 -- 14 Hal Yang ‘Mungkin’ Terjadi Jika Yunani Default…
• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%

Continue reading »]]> Berikut kami sajikan artikel dari CNBC mengenai sistem perbankan yang memiliki exposure ke negara – negara eropa yang bermasalah PIIGS. PIIGS adalah singkatan dari kelompok negara Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, dan Spain. Selamat membaca dan semoga berguna. Anda juga dapat membaca artikel ini di kolom kiri website ini pada bagian HALAMAN.

Nations Most Exposed To The PIIGS

The European sovereign debt crisis continues to rattle global markets as uncertainty over austerity measures and a proposed bailout have people questioning whether the Eurozone will be able to survive more financial trauma.

At the center of concerns are the “PIIGS” nations – Portugal, Italy, Ireland Greece and Spain – heavily indebted countries in danger of default that could trigger an economic domino effect around the globe.

In an April 2010 report, the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a clearinghouse for world’s central banks – reviews central bank data and reveals the countries that are the most exposed to European turmoil, specifically in their banking systems. The numbers presented here take into account foreign claims – investments in the form of loans and bonds that have arisen from PIIGS nations – that are held by international banks headquartered outside the individual countries. If a government defaults on debt, it could carry catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy, with the potential to seriously devalue – or potentially wipe out – these assets.

For the context of this report, CNBC.com has compared the exposure of countries to the size of their respective financial systems for a percentage of total direct exposure. The exposure numbers only include data from international banks, and does not account for insurance companies or other financial firms.

So, which countries are most exposed to the PIIGS? Click ahead for a country-by-country breakdown.

By Paul Toscano
Posted 7 May 2010

1. Australia

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: .08%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $1.73 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $2.150 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $108 million
Ireland: N/A
Italy: N/A
Greece: $28 million
Spain: $1.6 billion

*Figures are rounded

2. Brazil

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 0.198%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $3.11 billion
Size of Financial System: $1.57 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $1.13 billion
Ireland: $49 million
Italy: $454 million
Greece: $5 million
Spain: $1.48 billion

*Figures are rounded

3. Greece

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 0.2%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $1.36 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $456.39 billion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $105 million
Ireland: $804 million
Italy: $13 million
Greece: N/A
Spain: $434 million

*Figures are rounded

4. Turkey

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 0.22%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $1.2 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $541 billion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $2 million
Ireland: $111 million
Italy: $630 million
Greece: $388 million
Spain: $68 million

*Figures are rounded

5. Sweden

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 0.983%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $14.29 billion
Size of Financial System: $1.454 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $469 million
Ireland: $4.686 billion
Italy: $2.602 billion
Greece: $684 million
Spain: $5.85 billion

*Figures are rounded

6. United States

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 1.57%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $186.69
Size of Financial Sector: $11.827 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $4.99 billion
Ireland: $58.55 billion
Italy: $53.79 billion
Greece: $16.65 billion
Spain: $52.70 billion

*Figures are rounded

7. Italy

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 1.93%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $63.12 billion
Size of Financial System: $3.26 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $6.74 billion
Ireland: $18.35 billion
Italy: N/A
Greece: $6.92 billion
Spain: $31.10 billion

*Figures are rounded

8. Switzerland

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 2.05%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $58.687 billion
Size of Financial System: $2.855 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $3.86 billion
Ireland: $16.53 billion
Italy: $16.39 billion
Greece: $3.64 billion
Spain: $18.26 billion

*Figures are rounded

9. Chinese Taipei (Taiwan)

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 2.32%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $4.32 billion
Size of Financial System: $185.59 billion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $45 million
Ireland: $3.77 billion
Italy: $243 million
Greece: $71 million
Spain: $192 million

*Figures are rounded

10. Denmark

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 2.39%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $24.04 billion
Size of Financial System: $1.004 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $283 million
Ireland: $20.75 billion
Italy: $513 million
Greece: $182 million
Spain: $2.31 billion

*Figures are rounded

11. Spain

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 3.65%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $149.8 billion
Size of Financial System: $4.101 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $86.08 billion
Ireland: $15.66 billion
Italy: $46.79 billion
Greece: $1.27 billion
Spain: N/A

*Figures are rounded

12. United Kingdom

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 4.53%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $417.86 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $9.223 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $24.26 billion
Ireland: $187.51 billion
Italy: $76.87 billion
Greece: $15.09 billion
Spain: $114.14 billion

*Figures are rounded

13. Austria

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 4.84%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $50.15 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $1.035 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $2.79 billion
Ireland: $8.49 billion
Italy: $25.39 billion
Greece: $4.65 billion
Spain: $8.82 billion

*Figures are rounded

14. Japan

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 5.02%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $121.87 billion
Size of Financial System: $2.424 trillion*

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure**
Portugal: $4.22 billion
Ireland: $30.19 billion
Italy: $53.08 billion
Greece: $6.39 billion
Spain: $27.98 billion

*Includes Loan Trusts, Bond Investment Trusts, Stock Investment Trusts, Discretionary Investment Advisory Contracts, Pooled Investment Vehicles and Non-discretionary assets under management.
** Figures are rounded

15. Germany

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 6.18%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $703.795 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $11.3803 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $47.38 billion
Ireland: $183.76 billion
Italy: $189.68 billion
Greece: $45 billion
Spain: $237.98 billion

*Figures are rounded

16. Netherlands

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 6.79%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $243.59 billion
Size of Financial System: $3.585 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $12.41 billion
Ireland: $30.82 billion
Italy: $68.73 billion
Greece: $11.89 billion
Spain: $119.73 billion

*Figures are rounded

17. Belgium

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 7.93%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $118.89 billion
Size of Financial Sector: $1.498 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $3.12 billion
Ireland: $60.77 billion
Italy: $29.86 billion
Greece: $3.62 billion
Spain: $21.52 billion

*Figures are rounded

18. France

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 10.4%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $911.32 billion
Size of Financial System: $8.76 trillion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $44.74 billion
Ireland: $60.33 billion
Italy: $511.45 billion
Greece: $75.17 billion
Spain: $219.64 billion

*Figures are rounded

19. Ireland

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 13.5%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $90.378 billion
Size of Financial System: $671.45 billion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: $5.43 billion
Ireland: N/A
Italy: $46.26 billion
Greece: $8.46 billion
Spain: $30.23 billion

*Figures are rounded

20. Portugal

Banking Sector Asset Exposure: 14.08%

Total PIIGS Exposure: $64.54 billion
Size of Financial System: $458.38 billion

Direct Banking Sector PIIGS Exposure*
Portugal: N/A
Ireland: $21.52 billion
Italy: $5.20 billion
Greece: $9.75 billion
Spain: $28.08 billion

* Figures are rounded

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• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%
• January 21, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi GaleriSahamPREMIUM – Full Year 2011: +20.13%
• January 9, 2012 -- Review Pergerakan IHSG 2005 VS 2011: Peluang Break All Time High Tetap Terbuka Lebar

Continue reading »]]> Inilah mata uang masing – masing negara yang tergabung dalam zona dan mata uang Euro. Apa sajakah itu? Berapa nilainya sekarang terhadap US Dollar? Selamat membaca artikel berbahasa Inggris di bawah ini. Semoga berguna. (sumber: CNBC) Anda juga bisa menemukan artikel ini di kolom kiri website ini bagian HALAMAN.

The Value of Pre-Euro Currencies

The European Union’s single currency continued to slump, despite a $1 trillion rescue loan package, as traders and investors remained skeptical about the fiscal strength of euro zone members like Greece and Portugal.

The euro hit a 4-year low against the dollar on May 17, and there has been speculation about whether the current currency union format will survive. Spanish newspaper El Pais reported that French President Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to pull France out of the euro if an aid package for Greece was not delayed – something officials later denied.

And Harvard economist Ken Rogoff told CNBC the EU should probably have moved for the orderly exit of Greece and Portugal for the stability of the monetary group.

If countries left the euro, old currencies would have to be revived. But where would they trade? Each country entered the euro with an “irrevocable conversion rate.” The IMF uses the rates in its World Economic Outlook to compare and transform data prior to 1990. Using those rates and the latest euro close of $1.236 on May 14, we can see how those currencies would trade against the greenback.

By Kim Khan
Posted 17 May 2010

Austrian Schilling

Conversion Rate: 13.7603 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 11.1329 per dollar

The schilling became the national currency of Austria in 1924. Mozart has featured on the 5,000 schilling note, while Sigmund Freud had his portrait on the 50 schilling note.

The word schilling comes from England (shilling), and was originally defined as the value of a cow in Kent, or that of sheep outside of Kent.

Belgian Franc

Conversion Rate: 40.3399 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 32.6375 per dollar

Belgium adopted the franc after being annexed by Napoleon. The first Belgian banknotes were used only by banks and wealthy clientele as certificates of deposit, but banks would not accept notes from rivals, hurting confidence in paper money.

Cyprus Pound

Conversion Rate: 0.585274 per euro
Would Return Trading At: $2.1118 per Cyprus pound

The Cyprus pound started circulation after the country’s independence in 1960, but was pegged to British sterling until 1972. It was originally divided into 1000 units, before switching to a division of 100 units.

Deutsche Mark

Conversion Rate: 1.95583 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 1.5824 per dollar

Introduced by the Western Allies in 1948 in post-war Germany, the currency was designed to replace the black market economy where cigarettes were the mainly accepted form of currency (60,000 cigarettes could buy a Volkswagen, according to moneymuseum.com.)

Germans were still skeptical of paper money following the hyperinflation between the world wars. At the inflation’s peak in Nov. 1923, a US dollar was worth more than 2 trillion paper marks, varying from city to city throughout Germany.

Finnish Markkaa

Conversion Rate: 5.94573 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 4.8105 per dollar

Finland was granted its own currency in 1860 by Russian Czar Alexander II. It was tied to the Russian rouble, which was not pegged.

French Franc

Conversion Rate: 6.55957 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 5.3072 per dollar

The first franc minted was a gold coin to commemorate the release of King John the Good during the Hundred Years War. The revolutionary franc was the first decimal coin in France.

France was also a founding member of the Latin Monetary Union, formed in 1865, along with Italy, Belgium and Switzerland. The members promised to exchange their currencies for 0.290322 grams of gold or 4.5 grams of silver.

Greek Drachma

Conversion Rate: 340.750 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 275.6877 per dollar

The oldest of the pre-euro currencies, the drachma dates back to silver coins used in the 6th century BC. The name comes from the Greek “to grasp” and the value is said to be that of a handful of arrows.

Greek banknotes debuted in 1822, but a silver 20 drachma piece replaced the note in 1960.

Irish Pound

Conversion Rate: 0.787564 per euro
Would Return Trading At: $1.5694 per pound

The peg between the Irish and UK pound only ended in 1979 and for a large part of the currency’s history, Irish banknotes and coins were minted in England.

A committee led by WB Yeats, widely considered Ireland’s national poet, was in charge of deciding on an emblem for the currency and chose the Irish harp, according to the BBC.

Italian Lira

Conversion Rate: 1,936.27 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 1,566.56 per dollar

The lira was reintroduced to Sardinia by Napoleon and became the currency for the unified kingdom of Italy in 1860. The Vatican had its own lira, trading at 1-to-1 against the Italian lira and now has its own euro coins.

Luxembourg Franc

Conversion Rate: 40.3399 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 32.6375 per dollar

The grand duchy was anotherstate to inherit a currency from Napoleon, but the Luxembourg franc has never been widely used. After a monetary agreement with Belgium, Belgian coins and notes were accepted in Luxembourg.

Maltese Lira

Conversion Rate: 0.42930 per euro
Would Return Trading At: $2.8791 per lira

The currency began in 1972 –replacing the Maltese pound – and remained one of the strongest currencies in terms of exchange rates until the euro was adopted.

Netherlands Guilder

Conversion Rate: 2.20371 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 1.7829 per dollar

The guilder – evolving from the Dutch word for golden – was minted in the United States from 1943 to 1945, in anticipation of its use as currency for the liberated Netherlands, after the end of World War II.

Two Dutch coins, florin and guilder, were used as the names of the countries in the movie “The Princess Bride.”

Portuguese Escudo

Conversion Rate: 200.482 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 162.202 per dollar

In the 1920s the confidence in the escudo was shaken by a massive counterfeit scheme conducted by Alves dos Reis. By 1925 Reis had passed forged notes into the economy worth nearly 0.9 percent of gross domestic product.

Slovak Koruna

Conversion Rate: 30.1260 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 24.3738 per dollar

After independence, Slovakia introduced its own koruna, which replaced the Czechoslovak koruna at one-to-one.

Slovenian Tolar

Conversion Rate: 239.640 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 193.883 per dollar

The largest denomination of the currency was the 10,000 tolar note, which featured a picture of Ivan Cankar, considered by many to be the greatest Slovenian writer.

Spanish Peseta

Conversion Rate: 166.386 per euro
Would Return Trading At: 134.617 per dollar

The currency was introduced with a view to joining the Latin Monetary Union, which Spain did, along with Greece, in 1868. During the Spanish Civil War the peseta was divided into a Republican peseta and a Nationalist peseta.

Spain had a rocky road to euro integration, and was devalued in the mid-90s.

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• February 1, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi Januari 2012: +2.96% VS +3.13%
• January 21, 2012 -- Kinerja Rekomendasi GaleriSahamPREMIUM – Full Year 2011: +20.13%
• January 9, 2012 -- Review Pergerakan IHSG 2005 VS 2011: Peluang Break All Time High Tetap Terbuka Lebar

Continue reading »]]>

Source: www.falconprivatebank.com

Jika dianggap Yunani sangat bermasalah, bagaimana dengan negara Eropa lainnya di atas ini? Semoga solusi cepat ditemukan.

Klik gambar untuk memperbesar.

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• July 12, 2011 -- Pengaruh Rangkaian Krisis Eropa Terhadap Indonesia
• June 20, 2011 -- 14 Hal Yang ‘Mungkin’ Terjadi Jika Yunani Default…
• December 16, 2010 -- Download: Economic Outlook 2011 By Schroders

Continue reading »]]>

Jakarta, detikFinance – Goldman Sachs Group Inc didakwa dengan penipuan oleh pengawas pasar modal AS yaitu Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) atas pemasaran produk subprime mortgage. Goldman dituding sebagai penyebab munculnya krisis keuangan di AS.

SEC menuduh Goldman Sachs dengan sengaja membuat produk surat utang berjaminan surat utang lain di sektor perumahan yang memang dirancang untuk gagal. Goldman dituding menipu investornya.

Produk ini telah merugikan investor hingga US$ 1 miliar. Bahkan, boleh jadi, kegagalan produk ini juga ikut menyebabkan kegagalan produk derivatif utang lain yang memicu krisis keuangan terbesar di AS.

“Tuntutan ini jauh lebih berat dari yang dibayangkan, karena Goldman telah membuat sebuah portofolio investasi yang dirancang untuk gagal,” kata Profesor di bidang hukum pasar modal, John Cofee seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Sabtu (17/4/2010).

Kejadian ini membuat saham Goldman turun 12,8% pada perdagangan Jumat, ditutup turun US$ 23,57 menjadi US$ 160,7 pada bursa New York. Penurunan ini mewakili US$ 12 miliar nilai pasar, dengan volume 100 juta lembar saham.

(dnl/dnl)

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• July 12, 2011 -- Pengaruh Rangkaian Krisis Eropa Terhadap Indonesia
• June 20, 2011 -- 14 Hal Yang ‘Mungkin’ Terjadi Jika Yunani Default…
• December 16, 2010 -- Download: Economic Outlook 2011 By Schroders

Continue reading »]]> Apakah Amerika merupakan negara yang memiliki hutang terbanyak saat ini? Kami sajikan 20 negara penghutang terbesar di dunia berdasarkan proporsi utang terhadap GDP negaranya. Sumber berasal dari artikel pada CNBC berbahasa Inggris. Selamat membaca.

The World’s Biggest Debtor Nations

Throughout the financial crisis, many national economies have looked to their government and foreign lenders for financial support, which translates to increased spending, borrowing and in most cases, growing national debt.

Deficit spending, government debt and private sector borrowing are the norm in most western countries, but due in part to the financial crisis, some nations and economies are in considerably worse debt positions than others.

External debt is a measure of a nation’s foreign liabilities, capital plus interest that the government and institutions within a nation’s borders must eventually pay. This number not only includes government debt, but also debt owed by corporations and individuals to entities outside their home country.

So, how does the US debt position compare to that of other countries? A useful measure of a country’s debt position is by comparing gross external debt to GDP. By comparing a country’s debt to what it produces, this ratio can be used to determine the likelihood that a country will be able to repay its debt. This report takes a look at the world’s 75 largest economies to see which ones have the highest external debt to GDP ratio, calculated using the most recent numbers from the World Bank. We’ve listed the top twenty here.

Who are the world’s biggest debtor nations? The rankings may surprise you!

By Paul Toscano

20. United States

External debt (as % of GDP): 94.3%
External debt per capita: $43,793

Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion

19. Hungary

External debt (as % of GDP): 105.7%
External debt per capita: $20,990

Gross external debt: $207.92 billion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $196.6 billion

18. Australia

External debt (as % of GDP): 111.3%
External debt per capita: $41,916

Gross external debt: $891.26 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $800.2 billion

17. Italy

External debt (as % of GDP): 126.7%
External debt per capita: $39,741

Gross external debt: $2.310 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $ 1.823 trillion

16. Greece

External debt (as % of GDP): 161.1%
External debt per capita: $51,483

Gross external debt: $552.8 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $343 billion

15. Spain

External debt (as % of GDP): 171.7%
External debt per capita: $59,457

Gross external debt: $2.409 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $1.403 trillion

14. Germany

External debt (as % of GDP): 178.5%
External debt per capita: $63,263

Gross external debt: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.918 trillion

13. Finland – 188.5%

External debt (as % of GDP): 188.5%
External debt per capita: $69,491

Gross external debt: $364.85 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $193.5 billion

12. Sweden – 194.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 194.3%
External debt per capita: $73,854

Gross external debt: $669.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $344.3 billion

11. Norway – 199%

External debt (as % of GDP): 199%
External debt per capita: $117,604

Gross external debt: $548.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $275.4 billion

10. Hong Kong – 205.8%

External debt (as % of GDP): 205.8%
External debt per capita: $89,457

Gross external debt: $631.13 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $306.6 billion

9. Portugal – 214.4%

External debt (as % of GDP): 214.4%
External debt per capita: $47,348

Gross external debt: $507 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $236.5 billion

8. France – 236%

External debt (as % of GDP): 236%
External debt per capita: $78,387

Gross external debt: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.128 trillion

7. Austria – 252.6%

External debt (as % of GDP): 252.6%
External debt per capita: $101,387

Gross external debt: $832.42 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $329.5 billion

6. Denmark – 298.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 298.3%
External debt per capita: $110,422

Gross external debt: $607.38 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $203.6 billion

5. Belgium – 320.2%

External debt (as % of GDP): 320.2%
External debt per capita: $119,681

Gross external debt: $1.246 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $389 billion

4. Netherlands – 365%

External debt (as % of GDP): 365%
External debt per capita: $146,703

Gross external debt: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $672 billion

3. United Kingdom – 408.3%

External debt (as % of GDP): 408.3%
External debt per capita: $148,702

Gross external debt: $9.087 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.226 trillion

2. Switzerland – 422.7%

External debt (as % of GDP): 422.7%
External debt per capita: $176,045

Gross external debt: $1.338 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $316.7 billion

1. Ireland – 1,267%

External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267%
External debt per capita: $567,805

Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion

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Continue reading »]]> JAKARTA: Chief Asia and Emerging-Market Strategist JPMorgan Chase & Co.s Adrian Mowat mengatakan, pasar saham sedang berada di tengah masa bullish yang sangat panjang. Semua ini seiring dengan membaiknya kondisi perekonomian dunia.

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Continue reading »]]> Harga emas telah mencapai rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa di level USD1180 per Oz. Siapa saja pihak – pihak yang ‘menguasai’ emas di dunia ini?

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